Dubai Real Estate Set To Break $40 Billion Barrier In Summer 2025

Dubai’s real estate market is poised for its most active summer on record, with total transaction volumes expected to exceed USD 40 billion between June and August 2025. According to analytics reviewed by Elite Merit Real Estate LLC, the market surged to AED 142.7 billion (~USD 38.9 billion) in Q1 2025 alone—marking a 22% year-on-year increase and setting the stage for summer spending in the AED 150–160 billion (USD 41–44 billion) range. By contrast, Summer 2024 closed at just over USD 33 billion in total transactions, making this year’s forecast a potential 25–30% seasonal leap.

A key driver of this trend is the maturing development pipeline. Projects launched in 2023–24 are now entering final construction stages, giving investors in Summer 2025 a last-chance opportunity to secure units before completion-linked price increases take hold. Off-plan activity now accounts for over 63% of all transactions—up from 54% last year—underscoring growing confidence in the city’s development trajectory.

This surge in activity is unfolding against a favorable backdrop: sustained price appreciation, strong off-plan momentum, and improving macroeconomic conditions are combining to create what many see as a limited-time opportunity for global investors. Apartments are forecast to appreciate by 6–9% year-on-year, while villa prices could rise 7–10%, supported by tight inventory and continued international demand. Off-plan units in emerging areas such as Arjan and JVC are expected to deliver capital gains of 15–25% by handover.

Historically a quieter quarter due to seasonal travel, Q3 now presents buyers with increased negotiation leverage. Developers are responding to this dynamic with attractive post-handover payment plans and limited-time summer incentives, particularly in the mid-luxury segment.

“Summer 2025 offers a compelling value window that we expect will close quickly by Q4,” said Elkhan Salikhov, CEO at Elite Merit Real Estate. “We’re seeing a convergence of factors—pricing still below peak, soft summer inventory pressure, and upcoming project handovers—creating an ideal moment for experienced buyers.”